Abstract: In recent years, the prices of key rare earth elements such as praseodymium, neodymium, terbium, and dysprosium have experienced significant fluctuations, posing challenges to the healthy and stable development of the rare earth industry. This study aims to provide scientific evidence for stabilizing rare earth prices and promoting sustainable industry development by analyzing the fluctuation characteristics of these rare earth elements and identifying the factors that influence their prices. Based on monthly price data of key rare earth elements from 2007 to 2023, this study employs a seasonal ARIMA model to forecast rare earth prices and combines it with a fluctuation model to characterize price fluctuations. Additionally, using CiteSpace software, the study identifies and summarizes the factors influencing rare earth prices and analyzes the impact of these factors on price fluctuation through a Vector Autoregression （VAR） model and variance decomposition. The results indicate that the seasonal ARIMA model can effectively predict the prices of key rare earth elements, with forecast values closely aligning with actual trends and achieving high accuracy. The study finds that the price fluctuation of praseodymium oxide and neodymium oxide is generally greater than that of terbium oxide and dysprosium oxide. The analysis using the VAR model and variance decomposition reveals that the prices of praseodymium, neodymium, terbium, and dysprosium, sales of new energy vehicles, domestic rare earth supply, technological advancements, and domestic rare earth demand are the primary factors influencing the price fluctuation of key rare earth elements. Moreover, international crude oil prices, rare earth resource tax reform, economic policy uncertainty, and macroeconomic conditions also play significant roles in affecting rare earth prices and should not be overlooked. Considering these findings, this study proposes countermeasures to stabilize rare earth prices from three aspects: supply, demand, and technology. Specifically, on the supply side, it is recommended to optimize the extraction and supply management of domestic rare earth resources and strengthen international resource cooperation to ensure the stability of rare earth supply. On the demand side, attention should be paid to the changing trends of rare earth demand in emerging industries such as new energy vehicles, and market demand should be guided reasonably. On the technology front, enterprises are encouraged to increase investment in technological research and development, improve the utilization efficiency of rare earth resources, and reduce production costs. By implementing these comprehensive measures, rare earth price fluctuations can be effectively mitigated, and the healthy and stable development of the rare earth industry can be promoted.