Study on the relationship between financial speculation and international crude oil price:based on the two-stage Markov area transfer model

Based on the weekly data of financial speculation and international crude oil price from February 2000 to August 2016, this paper uses the “two-stage” Markov area system (MS-VAR) transfer model to capture and describe financial speculation and international crude oil price multi-stage.The dynamic change process of financial speculation and international crude oil price cycle is analyzed, and the correlation between financial speculation and international crude oil price is finally demonstrated.This paper is helpful to understand the inherent relationship between financial speculation and international crude oil price, and explore the financial support mechanism to improve and optimize the national petroleum resources through mineral finance construction.