Banned fuel vehicles:global lead demand forecasting and adaptive adjustment

This paper systematically collects historical data on lead consumption in countries around the world from 1930 to 2016, and divides them into five different groups according to the economic development of each country.Using the “S”-shaped consumption rule of per capita GDP and per capita lead consumption and considering the impact of policies related to the ban on the sale of fuel vehicles, we predict the future global lead demand in two cases:lead storage batteries have not been replaced on a large scale.In this case, global demand for lead is 12.64 Mt, 12.93 Mt, 13.08 Mt, and 12.92 Mt in 2025, 2030, 2035, and 2040; in the future, fuel vehicles will be banned from selling, and lead storage batteries will be replaced by other batteries at a large-scale.In this case, in 2025, 2030, 2035, and 2040, global lead demand is 11.15 Mt, 10.44 Mt, 9.55 Mt, and 7.87 Mt, respectively.In view of the changes in lead demand in the future, suggestions are proposed as following:improving the energy density and deep cycle performance of lead storage batteries, strengthening the recovery capacity of lead storage batteries, and gradually transforming traditional lead battery manufacturing into new energy batteries to provide reference for the adjustment of lead consumption.