Identification and evaluation of copper supply risk for China:using method of long-term historical data analysis

Rapid economic development of China in the early 21st century led to a sharp increase in the demand for mineral resources.Issues that are highly concerned at present and in the coming years are whether the mineral resources supply can meet China's demand, and what are the main risks constraining China's mineral resources supply.Using a long-term historical data analysis and prediction method and according to historical trends of the copper market in China, we have constructed a revised model for evaluating China's copper supply risks, select quantitative indexes, and set the benchmark of critical supply situation for each index, so as to conduct the supply risk evaluation.The copper supply risks of China is evaluated from 5 perspectives, namely the demand, domestic supply capacity, concentration degree of global supply, geostrategic risk and supply-demand situation, and using 11 indexes.The evaluation results show that China's domestic supply may not meet its huge copper demand, so there is the risk of supply shortage.However, the global copper resource distribution and the concentration degree of the production of copper-producing countries and companies are relatively balanced, creating favorable conditions for China to import copper from multi-sources and decrease copper import risks.We predict that the copper supply shortage situation in China will improve by 2030.