The consumption rules and demand prediction of potash in China

Potash is one of the scarce strategic mineral resources in China, it is necessary to make a prediction of the medium and long-term consumption of potash in China from a strategic point of view of maintaining the safety of agricultural production.The research on the potassic fertilizer consumption rules of major developed countries reveals that capita consumption of potassic fertilizer, consumption of potassic fertilizer per unit of arable land and total amount of potassic fertilizer consumption show inverted “S” shape with capita GDP, which have obvious peak characteristics.The trajectories of total amount of potassic fertilizer consumption of developed countries can be divided into three types:intensive type, sparse type and intermediate type.The intensive type countries have medium land area and higher consumption of potassic fertilizer per unit of arable land and reach consumption peak when capita GDP reaches 11 000-16 000.The sparse type countries have larger land area and lower consumption of potassic fertilizer per unit of arable land and reach consumption peak when capita GDP reaches 19 000-20 000.The intermediate countries have larger area and a large population.They are the largest agriculture countries and reach consumption peak when capita GDP reaches 18 000.China’s consumption of potassic fertilizer is intermediate type and will reach consumption peak of potash when the capita GDP reaches 18 000.The peak value is about 14 million tons of K₂O per year, which will be from 2025 to 2028.