Global copper demand analysis based on the S-shape model

Based on historical data on economic development and copper consumption by key economies worldwide, this paper marks three critical points on S-shape trajectories that depict copper demand and establishes non-linear mathematical models based on the copper consumption per capita of three types of typical countries and their GDP per capita.By combining countries with different levels of development worldwide, we are able to project copper demand trends at the global, national, and regional levels.Global demand for copper will continue to rise in the future, hitting 39.94 million tons in 2030.In the long run, it appears that China will remain the main consumer of copper globally, but its share of global consumption will slide continuously.Developing countries, notably India and countries belonging to the ASEAN, will become the main drivers of global copper demand.