Risk analysis of shale gas exploration and development

China puts forward the idea of paying equal attention to natural resources and ecological environment, and puts forward new requirements for shale gas exploration and development.Shale gas is an unconventional gas resource with low grade, high potential, high investment and high risk.In view of the geological characteristics of China, the geological risk, technical risk, economic risk and environmental risk of shale gas development are analyzed.The uncertainty of geological parameters is discussed through parallel experiments; combined with the low recovery rate of shale gas and the current weak understanding of the guiding laws, the geological risk is analyzed.The core technology level and capability in China is continuously improving, combined with engineering geological conditions, the difficulties in popularization and application of technology in different regions are analyzed.Combined with the perfection of infrastructure in China, the technical risk is analyzed.Continuous large investment and natural gas price fluctuation are the main economic risks.The possible environmental risks of shale gas development are discussed; based on the differences of the humanities, geography, underground and surface conditions in southern and northern China, the possible environmental problems and corresponding countermeasures for shale gas development are discussed.In the geological work of shale gas exploration and development, it is necessary to further strengthen the understanding, description and analysis of these uncertainties, and to strengthen the comprehensive risk assessment to help the decision-makers to make a more scientific and comprehensive judgment.