Research on the impact of fluctuation of steam coal futures price on China coal economy

Using China coal price index, China coal market boom index, China coal market expectation index and coal industry unemployment rate as representative variables of China's coal economic development, this paper selects the transaction data from September 2013 to July 2018, constructs a VAR model, and studies the dynamic relationship among the steam coal futures price and China coal price index, China coal market boom index, China coal market expectation index and the unemployment rate of the coal industry.Granger causality test shows that domestic steam coal futures price is the Granger cause of China coal price index, China coal market boom index, China coal market expectation index and coal industry unemployment rate.The impulse response and variance decomposition analysis show that the fluctuation of steam coal futures price will cause the same direction change of China coal market prosperity; the rise of second-order steam coal futures price will make the expected index of China coal market rise; and the second-order steam coal futures price will lag behind.The grid is rising, and the unemployment rate is decreasing.In the long run, the rise in the price of steam coal will reduce the unemployment rate.Overall, there is a dynamic equilibrium relationship between the price of steam coal futures and the development of China coal economy.