Stage analysis and future situation prediction of coal price in China:based on Marx’s theory of commodity value

For discovering the law of coal price change and predicting the trend of coal price in the future, this paper analyzes the coal price of China since 2002 by using Marx’s theory of commodity value.According to the basic operation law of “value determines price, price fluctuates around value” and different driving factors of coal price change, it can be divided into four stages, namely, value- and demand-driven rising market (2002-2011), supply-led falling market (2012-2015), policy-led reversal market (2016), policy-market synergy-balanced market (since 2017).The paper further analyzes the overall expectation that the coal cost price will rise, the average profit margin will decline and the supply-demand relationship will remain relatively stable in the future period, and believes that China’s coal price will enter a relatively stable new stage for a long time.Its main characteristics are enhanced ecological and environmental protection constraints, deeper marketization, normalization of supply and demand equilibrium, and localization of large fluctuations in coal prices.It is predicted that China’s coal price will fluctuate slightly around 530 yuan per ton and 540 yuan per ton in 2025 and 2030, respectively.