Analysis of the law of manganese consumption and a prediction about China’s manganese demand
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Abstract
Manganese is an important basic raw material and is mainly used in the steel industry.Accurate understanding of the demand situation of manganese resources is the prerequisite for the formulation of scientific and rational manganese industry policies and plans.This paper analyzes the manganese consumption history of the United States, Japan and other typical countries for nearly 100 years, all of which follow the inverted “U”-shaped consumption law, and calibrates three key points in the manganese consumption curve-the take-off point, turning point, and zero-growth point.Meanwhile, the paper analyzes the internal relations of manganese consumption and crude steel production of typical countries, and discovers the existence of a strong linear relationship.Manganese consumption inverted “U” shape laws and manganese-steel linear relationship are used to predict China’s demand for manganese.Mutual authentication of the two methods, the results trend a strong consistency.Based on the demand of manganese inverted “U” shape the law in the reference scenario, the paper estimates the peak of China’s manganese demand is around the year 2016-2017 when the manganese demand is about 11.8 million tons, and lead demand per capita is 8.4 kg, and then the manganese consumption will begin to slow down.In this paper, China’s manganese demand is quantitatively predicted in medium- and long-term scale, which provides support for China’s manganese resource development scale and industrial structure adjustment in the future.
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