Forecast of China's natural gas demand from 2020 to 2030

Although China's natural gas resources are abundant, the contradiction between supply and demand of natural gas resources is increasingly sharp due to the rising domestic demand.Achieving a more accurate forecast of future natural gas demand is beneficial to the arrangement of natural gas production, import and export, and the formulation of energy strategy.This paper analyzes the distribution of global natural gas and China's domestic demand, identifies the main factors influencing the demand of natural gas resources in China, establishes a demand scenario model for China's natural gas resources based on BP neural network system from 2020 to 2030, and then calculates the demand of natural gas resources in three different scenarios.The following findings are achieved.①China's natural gas consumption showed an overall upward trend from 2009 to 2018.The growth rate of the consumption continued to exceed that of the production.In addition to 2015, the growth rate of the consumption led that of GDP and there is an expansion trend from 2017 to 2018.In 2018, the growth rate of natural gas consumption is about three times that of GDP.②China's GDP, average price of residential electricity, and natural gas futures prices are the main factors influencing the demand of China's natural gas resources.③The demand and import of natural gas will continue to increase in the next decade.The average demand and import volume of natural gas in 2030 will reach 436.327 billion cubic meters and 224.507 billion cubic meters respectively.In 2024, the average external dependence of natural gas will reach 51.24%, breaking through the international warning line of 50%, and will reach 51.46% in 2030.