Scrap steel resource utilization trend in China:analysis and forecast from 2020 to 2035

With the transformation and development of China's iron and steel industry, the rational utilization of scrap steel has become a key part of the transformation and upgrading of the iron and steel industry and green development.Reasonable analysis and prediction of the future utilization level and utilization trend of China's scrap steel are of great significance for supporting research on the high-quality development of the steel industry.Based on the historical and current data of China's scrap utilization, this article refers to the scrap recycling experience of developed countries and China's industrial policies, and uses the trend extrapolation method and the steel product life cycle method to assess China's scrap utilization, utilization levels from 2020 to 2035 use trends for analysis, and integrate the results of the two methods for comprehensive analysis and forecasting.The forecast results show that China's scrap utilization will continue to increase from 2020 to 2035, and the scrap ratio will increase to about 40% around 2035, reaching the world average.China's scrap steel will be used in 2025, 2030 and 2035.The utilization amount of the plant is 318 million tons, 380 million tons and 420 million tons respectively.Accordingly, in order to further improve the level of utilization of scrap steel, it is proposed to gradually increase the ratio of scrap steel and increase the proportion of electric furnace steel; strengthen market supervision and improve the recycling and processing system of scrap steel; promote the “cost reduction” of scrap steel, launch scrap steel futures, and encourage suggestions for enterprises to make more scrap steel.