Global mining outlook in 2023
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Abstract
In 2022, the growth rate of the world economy gradually decreased to a level lower than expected after experiencing a “V”-shaped reversal.The growth rate of global investment in mineral exploration has declined, and the exploration expenditure of bulk minerals, such as iron and copper was insufficient; mine construction investment has increased, but many large-scale projects cannot be put into construction due to environmental and infrastructure problems.Affected by factors such as repeated COVID-19 outbreaks and geopolitical tensions, the international mineral market has become more turbulent.The shrinking demand has led to a drop in the prices of bulk mineral products such as iron ore, but the prices of lithium and rare earths have risen sharply driven by the green transformation.The manifestations of resource nationalism are diversified, with the announcement of the establishment of national mining companies, banned the export of raw ore, and raised royalties in many countries.In 2023, the downside risks of the world economy will increase, with the decline of mining GDP in mineral-rich countries.Exploration and development in the United States and other Western countries have returned, and gold, lithium and rare earths continue to be hot minerals for exploration.The international mineral market will be adjusted and stabilized gradually, and the demand of critical minerals for new energy vehicles is still strong.Mining companies face persistent ESG (Environment, Social and Governance) risks and will face challenges in financing and rising labor costs, but green transformation will bring new opportunities.The dilemma of key minerals is difficult to solve, the western countries have introduced incentive policies to stimulate the exploration and development of domestic minerals, and improve security of supply through partnerships.
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