Research on policy evaluation of coal transformation under the background of “dual carbon”

The “dual carbon” goal has put forward new requirements for coal industry development, and the government has successively introduced a series of support policies to promote the upgrading of coal consumption. The 14th Five Year Plan period is a critical and window period for carbon peaking, and significant changes have taken place in the external environment. Driven by the “dual carbon” goal, the basic national situation of coal as the mainstay determines that coal will continue to undertake the major mission of ensuring energy security and supply. Therefore, it is particularly important to ensure the policy mechanisms for coal transformation. Collects and sorts out the policies related to coal transformation after the “dual carbon” goal is proposed, selects 49 policies closely related to coal transformation and upgrading as research objects, and refers to existing policy research methods to conduct detailed research from four dimensions: policy strength, policy objectives, policy measures, and policy effectiveness. Establishes evaluation indicators based on production, consumption, technology, and institutional mechanisms, assign weights to each indicator through analytic hierarchy process, and establishes an evaluation system for coal transformation policies. Uses fuzzy comprehensive evaluation method to evaluate the quality of coal transformation policies. Based on the quantitative results, the comprehensive scores of coal and carbon related policies in each dimension are from high to low, in order of production, consumption, technology, and institutional mechanisms. The research results show that in the process of coal transformation, the government currently attaches great importance to coal production, followed by coal total quantity control and intensity control. The institutional and mechanism related policies for coal transformation and upgrading are relatively weak, and it is necessary to pay more attention to the role of institutional and mechanism level policies in promoting coal consumption transformation in future policy design. In response to the problems existing in existing policies, relevant suggestions have been proposed from four levels: production, consumption, technology, and institutional mechanisms, in order to provide reference for the construction of policy systems related to coal transformation.