Analysis of lithium secondary supply potential in China based on dynamic material flow

As the global demand for carbon emission reduction and renewable energy increases year by year, it is urgent to solve the conversion and storage of renewable energy. As one of the key metals to promote the new energy revolution, the supply, flow and stock of lithium are of great significance for achieving carbon neutrality and sustainable development. In this paper, a material flow analysis framework for lithium resources based on full life cycle trade linkages is constructed to systematically analyze the supply, flow and stock of lithium resources in China from 2000 to 2022, and to estimate the recovery potential of lithium metal in end-of-life products containing lithium in China from 2023 to 2035. The results show that lithium battery is the main consumption area of lithium resources at this stage, lithium battery consumption increased from 600 tons of lithium metal in 2000 to 132 600 tons of lithium metal in 2022, the proportion of consumption increased from 12% to 92%. At the same time, the scrapped volume of lithium batteries is growing rapidly, and it is expected that China’s lithium consumption will reach 292 700 tons by 2035, and the potential for lithium secondary resource recovery will reach 161 000 tons. Based on the research results, it is suggested to formulate relevant policies from three aspects: stabilizing the upstream supply of lithium resources, promoting the high-quality development of lithium industry and improving the recycling system of waste lithium batteries, so as to achieve the healthy and sustainable development of lithium industry.