Analysis of China’s copper ore availability based on factor simulation method

To clarify the baseline for China’s mineral resource security, it is crucial to assess the availability of critical mineral resources. This study integrates the economic dimension of mine financial models with the geological dimension of geological analogy methods, incorporating environmental and technological factors to select multi-dimensional determinants of mine availability. Addressing challenges such as data gaps and prediction uncertainties in the analysis of strategic critical mineral resource availability, the research enhances the theoretical framework through methodological and model improvements, supported by empirical validation. Using data from 46 copper mines with known mining costs, the study considers four dimensions: economic, technological, environmental, and geological factors, selects 10 variables to construct a comprehensive cost prediction model. This model is applied to forecast mining costs for 679 screened copper mines, enabling the creation of production-cost cumulative curves to analyze and predict the future availability and potential risks of China’s copper ore supply. Key findings include: ① China’s copper mine costs are generally high. While some high-quality mines have lower mining costs （20,000-25,000 yuan/ton）, most mines exhibit low grades, high dispersion, and elevated costs （54,528 yuan/ton）, significantly exceeding the global average production cost. ② There is a clear negative correlation between mine scale and mining cost levels, as well as cost dispersion. Larger-scale mines tend to have lower costs but higher cost variability. ③ Several potential risk points exist in China’s copper ore supply, with growth stagnation trends emerging when mining costs reach 26,000 yuan/ton, 38,000 yuan/ton, 40,000 yuan/ton, and 45,000 yuan/ton, respectively. Based on these findings, the study proposes the policy recommendations: intensify domestic resource exploration, optimize overseas resource allocation, and strengthen the recycling industry.