Research on the development potential of critical metals in power batteries and carbon emission reduction effects for new energy vehicles:a case study of Hainan Province

In recent years, the rapid development of the new energy vehicle industry has led to a surge in demand for critical metals. At the same time, the issue of greenhouse gas emissions in the automotive industry has attracted widespread attention from scholars, and the promotion and use of new energy vehicles play a positive role in improving this problem. Assessing the development potential of critical metals in power batteries of new energy vehicles and the carbon emission reduction potential of new energy vehicles can provide a scientific basis for improving the efficiency of urban mineral recycling and implementing carbon reduction strategies. The number of new energy passenger vehicles in Hainan Province ranks second nationwide, playing a demonstrative role in promoting the development of new energy vehicles. Based on a dynamic material flow model, this paper calculates the future development trends of the demand and recycling volume of critical metals in the power batteries of new energy passenger vehicles in Hainan Province from 2023 to 2050, and assesses the carbon emission reduction potential of new energy passenger vehicles during their use. The research results show that: ①the demand volume for critical metals in the power batteries of new energy passenger vehicles in the future will show a rapid development trend. From 2023 to 2050, the cumulative demand volume for each critical metal: lithium 44 700-67 400 t, nickel 76 400-115 100 t, cobalt 26 500-39 900 t, manganese 24 300-36 600 t. ②The recycling volume of critical metals in the power batteries of new energy passenger vehicles in the future will increase rapidly. From 2023 to 2050, the cumulative recycling volume for each critical metal: lithium 16 700-29 600 t, nickel 31 000-55 100 t, cobalt 10 700-19 100 t, manganese 9 900-17 500 t. ③The promotion and use of new energy passenger vehicles is an effective measure for carbon emission reduction. Under the current policies and development scenarios, the carbon emission reduction volume brought about by the use of new energy passenger vehicles will reach its highest value in 2050, which is 601.03-768.65 t （pessimistic scenario）, 650.32-831.79 t （conservative scenario）, 655.35-838.19 t （positive scenario）. Finally, this paper provides relevant suggestions for the formulation of recycling strategies for critical metals and carbon emission reduction strategies.