Analysis of aluminum resource supply and demand situation in China from a global perspective

The rapid industrialization has driven the rapid growth of demand for primary aluminum in China. China’s alumina production, primary aluminum production, primary aluminum consumption all occupies the majority of the global market share. At the same time, problems such as insufficient domestic bauxite supply, decreased quality, and unstable supply of imported ores are becoming increasingly. In this context, the research value of the supply and demand situation of aluminum resources in China is significant. In 2023, the global reserves of bauxite resources will be abundant, with a static bauxite reserve production ratio of 82 years, which is sufficient to meet the demand for aluminum resources for global economic growth in the 21st century. China’s bauxite reserves account for 2.3% of the world’s total, producing 23.0% of the world’s bauxite, with a static reserve production ratio of 7 years. The three major bauxite producing countries in the world are Australia （98 million tons, 24.5%）, Guinea （97 million tons, 24.3%）, and China （93 million tons, 23.0%）. The global production of recycled aluminum is 39.52 million tons, while China’s production is around 9.5 million tons, ranking first in the world in terms of industrial scale and accounting for 24% of the global total. The international trade of bauxite is relatively concentrated, with Guinea（57%）, Australia（24%）, and Indonesia（12%） being the dominant exporting countries. China is the world’s largest importer of bauxite, accounting for 83% of the global total. China imported 1.83 million tons of alumina throughout the year, a year-on-year decrease of 8.2%. It imports 1.54 million tons of primary aluminum and 1.75 million tons of scrap aluminum, an increase of 130.7% and 15.6%, respectively. China’s dependence on foreign aluminum resources has reached 57.5%. The departmental consumption forecasting method is used to predict the demand for aluminum resources in China, and the supply situation of aluminum resources in China is analyzed. The results show that: ① The geological conditions of mineral resources in China are scarce, and the current alumina production process consumes a large amount of high-grade ore, resulting in a decrease in the grade of mines in China, making it difficult to support high-intensity mining and future demand for aluminum resources. ② The concentration of overseas resource layout is too high, which poses a security supply risk. The following suggestions are proposed: ① It increases the exploration of domestic bauxite resources and the utilization of aluminum resources under coal. ② It accelerates the globalization of China’s bauxite resources. ③ It encourages the expansion of new resources, standardizes the order of overseas investment, diversifies the risk of excessive concentration of bauxite imports in China, and focuses on enhancing China’s leadership and influence in global bauxite development. ④ It accelerates the supply side structural reform of alumina, prohibits new alumina projects that mainly consume domestic bauxite resources, and increases the protection of China’s limited bauxite resources. ⑤ It develops the recycled aluminum industry, supplements the supply of aluminum resources, and improves resource utilization efficiency.