Analysis of oil and gas resources situation at home and abroad in 2024 and outlook

In 2024, against the background of intensified political games among major powers, hot spots continue to be turbulent. The Russia-Ukraine conflict that began in 2022 has been postponed to the present day. The Palestinian Israeli conflict has expanded and escalated. Israel and the “axis of resistance” supported by Iran enganged in a series of confrontations. The situation in the Middle East continues to heat up. The world economy maintains resilience, inflation continues to decline, major economies have opened up interest rate cutting channels, and the global economy has achieved a certain degree of “soft landing”. Against the backdrop of the current macroeconomic situation and medium - to long-term energy transition, global oil demand growth is slowing down. OPEC+ oil producing countries have postponed their production increase plans to maintain their production cuts, while non OPEC+ oil producing countries are gradually expanding their market share. Oil supply and demand have shifted from tight balance to loose. International oil prices exhibit range oscillations under the combination of supply and demand fundamentals, macroeconomic conditions, financial and monetary policies, geopolitical emergencies, and other bullish and bearish factors, with a focus on first rising and then falling. Both ends of global natural gas supply and demand have achieved growth, and the supply-demand imbalance in the European market has been alleviated. Energy security remains fragile in the process of transforming energy consumption structure and reducing dependence on Russian natural gas; the strong demand for natural gas in the Asian market has driven global consumption growth. China’s national economy continues to recover and improve, new quality productivity is steadily developing, mining management reform is continuously advancing, and significant achievements have been made in oil and gas exploration. Conventional oil and gas exploration has made multiple new discoveries in large-scale onshore oil and gas basins, new offshore areas, new types, and new strata. Unconventional oil and gas exploration has made many important breakthroughs and progress in Sichuan Basin and its surrounding areas, Ordos Basin, the Junggar Basin, Bohai Bay Basin, Songliao Basin and Subei Basin. Crude oil production continues to steadily increase, with an annual output of nearly 213 million tons. The production of natural gas （including shale gas and coalbed methane, etc.） continues to grow rapidly, reaching 246 billion cubic meters.