Development of China’s 2024 natural gas market: review and prospect

As a clean and low-carbon fossil fuel, natural gas plays an important role in China’s energy transition. Based on a comprehensive analysis of market supply and demand, as well as a survey of the industrial chain data, this paper summarizes the international environment, supply-demand balance, and development ecosystem of China’s natural gas in 2024. The study finds that in 2024, global natural gas supply and demand both increased, shifting from a tight balance to a more relaxed situation, with overall gas prices in major markets declining. China’s natural gas consumption grew rapidly, reaching a new high of over 400 billion cubic meters. The new round of prospecting breakthrough strategic action is efficiently advanced, with significant breakthroughs in exploration in the central-western regions and offshore areas, leading to substantial increases in reserves and production reaching nearly 250 billion cubic meters. Imports of pipeline gas and liquefied natural gas （LNG） increased by 13% and 8% year-on-year, respectively, with a diversification of import sources. The construction of the fourth West-East Gas Pipeline achieves phased results, and the China-Russia East Line is fully operational. The construction of gas source pipeline transportation is continuously strengthened, and breakthroughs are made in the co-transportation of natural gas and hydrogen. With the commissioning of a number of new gas storage facilities and LNG receiving terminals, China’s gas storage and peak-shaving capacity increased rapidly, by 8 billion cubic meters year-on-year. Major breakthroughs are made in the construction of the legal system for the natural gas industry, with the introduction of the Energy Law and the new Mineral Resources Law, providing legal guarantees for the sustainable development of the oil and gas industry. Administrative Measures on Natural Gas Utilization are officially promulgated, clarifying the utilization principles of promoting natural gas conservation, ensuring the safety of living consumption, and achieving carbon peaking and carbon neutrality goals. Management policies have always focused on the construction of production, supply, storage, and sales, and have comprehensively planned to ensure the security of natural gas resource supply. Looking ahead to 2025, it is expected that the global natural gas supply will continue to grow, while the growth rate of demand will slow down. In China, both the production and consumption of natural gas are projected to keep increasing, surpassing 260 billion cubic meters and 450 billion cubic meters respectively. In 2025, the core of China’s natural gas industry policy will be to strengthen exploration and development, promote infrastructure construction, and advance the process of market-oriented reform.