Supply and demand situation of China’s copper industry in 2024

2024 marked a pivotal year for China’s copper industry to accelerate its transformation and advance high-quality development. The global copper industry are in a restructure process characterized by supply chain localization, demand diversification, and normalized price volatility. Policies such as resource nationalization trends in major copper-producing countries and increasingly stringent environmental regulations significantly disrupted global copper ore supply stability. Against this backdrop, it is necessary to conduct a systematic analysis of the structural imbalances in China’s copper industry, driven by surging demand from new energy sectors and intensifying resource constraints, for the analysis could provide critical insights for mitigating critical resource supply chain vulnerabilities and advancing green, low-carbon transitions. Based on the analysis, it is shown that: ① stable production growth with dual increases in revenue and profits among large-scale enterprises, supported by rising copper prices and smelters’ reliance on long-term copper concentrate processing contracts and byproduct revenues despite historically low processing fees. ② Steady refined copper consumption grows with sectoral divergence-accelerated investments in power grid infrastructure and robust automotive production offsetting weak demand from real estate and electronics sectors. ③ Copper product trade volumes is expanded, with imported raw materials（excluding blister copper） continuing to rise. Persistent structural challenges include heavy reliance on imported raw materials, unprofitable TC/RC levels exacerbating smelters’ operational pressures, accelerated global copper resource consolidation, and disordered overcapacity in copper processing sectors. Focusing on existing challenges and risks to adapt to current domestic and international circumstances, following recommendations are proposed for ensuring raw material supply security and advancing China’s position as a global leader in the copper industry: ① continuously strengthen Party-building leadership to foster positive industry development; ② prioritize establishing resilient copper industry and supply chains as the strategic focus for high-quality development; ③ cultivate new quality productive forces as the endogenous driver of industrial advancement; ④ institutionalize green and low-carbon transition as an essential requirement for sustainable growth. These proposals aim to systematically address supply chain vulnerabilities, enhance innovation capabilities, and accelerate ecological transformation within China’s copper sector.