Sustainable security capacity of China’s coal resources: restructuring occurrence patterns and optimizing development pathways

China’s coal resources exhibit a “west-rich, east-poor” distribution pattern, with the Shanxi-Shaanxi-Inner Mongolia-Ningxia region holding 40% of national reserves and Xinjiang contributing 42% of resources. A three-tier potential assessment model indicates 16 824 billion tons of recoverable resources above 1 000 m depth by 2030. However, critical challenges persist: only 11% of resources are converted to reserves, 59% remain inferred category, and 52% of producing mines operate with pre-exploration level data. At a 39% recovery rate, the static reserve lifespan is merely 20 years nationally（14 a in Shanxi, 26 a in Xinjiang）, while China’s average recovery rate（25%-40%） lags 20+ percentage points behind developed nations（60%-70%）. To address these, integrated solutions are proposed: implementing trinity exploration（seismic-drilling-logging） in key basins to shorten appraisal cycles by 3-5 years; deploying high-resolution 3D seismic and underground channel wave CT for deep mining in Ordovician water-threatened zones; establishing recovery rate-tax linkage. This framework provides scientific basis for sustainable coal development.