Dynamic material flow analysis of nickel in China from 2000 to 2021

Nickel （Ni） is a critical metallic element supporting the global transition to green and low-carbon energy, with wide applications in stainless steel, battery production and so on. As the world’s largest consumer of nickel resources, China faces a substantial supply-demand gap and challenges related to supply chain stability. Therefore, it has become imperative to conduct nickel material flow analysis, quantitatively depict the material flow process across the entire industrial chain, and identify potential risk points. This study implements the visualization of nickel’s life cycle metabolism based on dynamic material flow model. The findings are as follows: from the perspective of flow, China’s primary nickel supply relies heavily on imports, demand for midstream and downstream smelting and fabrication products is expanding rapidly, resulting in striking supply-demand structural imbalances. The overall trade scale has expanded steadily, China is increasingly evolving into an importer of nickel ore mining & milling products and smelting & refining products, while acting as an exporter of primary nickel products and end-use nickel products. The recycling rate of nickel remains low. From the perspective of stock, the total stock of refined nickel in the smelting & refining stage follows a trajectory of initial growth, subsequent decline, and final fluctuating decrease. In the end-use stage, metal products dominate both the cumulative in-use stock and the net increase in in-use stock.