Analysis and reflection on the supply-demand of graphite resource at home and abroad

Against the backdrop of the rapid expansion of the new energy industry and the intensifying strategic competition over critical minerals, there is an urgent need to systematically identify the constraints governing graphite supply-demand and to assess their implications for industrial security. Drawing on global data on graphite resources, production, consumption, and trade, this paper develops an integrated analytical framework encompassing resource endowment, production supply, consumption structure, trade networks, and policy shocks to characterize the evolution of global and China’s natural graphite supply-demand patterns. Using 2024 as the base year, a sectoral demand aggregation approach is applied to project medium- to long-term demand. The results indicate that global natural graphite supply is highly concentrated, with China occupying a central position in both production and processing, while emerging African producers primarily serve as sources of flexible supplementary supply. On the demand side, the rapid growth of electric vehicles and energy storage systems is accelerating the concentration of graphite consumption in lithium-ion battery anode applications, where competition between natural and synthetic graphite is shifting from simple cost substitution toward a structural contest shaped by performance consistency, carbon footprint, and compliance constraints. In this context, China’s graphite supply-demand imbalance is evolving from a quantitative constraint to one defined by quality and structural factors, with new-energy-related sectors becoming the dominant drivers of future demand growth. Based on these findings, the study argues that enhancing the coordination of overseas resource, upgrading the supply capacity of high-end graphite materials, and strengthening the construction of the industry chain compliance frameworks to improve the security and resilience of China’s graphite industry chain.