Review of China’s oil and gas development during the 14th Five-Year Plan period and outlook for high-quality development during the 15th Five-Year Plan period

During the 14th Five-Year Plan period, facing a complex political and economic landscape including the impact of the COVID-19 pandemic, geopolitical conflicts and profound adjustments to the energy structure, China’s upstream oil and gas exploration and development investment, as well as reserves and output, hit a record high. Geological theories, technologies and equipment continue to innovate, effectively driving major breakthroughs and progress in multiple fields of “deep formation, deepwater oil and gas exploration, unconventional resources and mature oilfield redevelopment”. The supply guarantee capacity has been steadily enhanced, and the targets of the 14th Five-Year Plan have been achieved two years ahead of schedule. In the 15th Five-Year Plan period, the development of the oil and gas sector is confronted with a new landscape featuring the restructure of the global political and economic order, the overlap of multiple development cycles at home and abroad, and the rise of the industry’s natural decline rate. Challenges such as a prolonged period of low oil prices, resource inferiorization, insufficient innovation in theories and technologies, and the energy transition will directly affect China’s oil and gas reserve and output growth, energy supply security, and the sustainable economic and social development. Therefore, it is necessary to take safeguarding national energy security as the core goal, advance the high-quality development of the upstream oil and gas sector, and ensure a well-coordinated balance between the rational growth of volume and the effective improvement of quality. Firstly, there is a need to balance domestic production and imports to enhance the production and supply capacity adapted to market demand. Secondly, there is a need to pursue low-cost and high-efficiency development to raise the efficiency of resource development and utilization as well as economic returns. The following efforts should be made: strengthen the tracking of development trends and risk early warning assessment, and improve top-level design and planning guidance; intensify innovation in theories, science and technology; adhere to cost reduction, efficiency improvement and diversified imports; further deepen market-oriented reforms and fully stimulate the enthusiasm for oil and gas exploration and development; promote integrated development with new energy sources to support the energy transition.