Analysis of China’s natural resources economic situation in 2025 and outlook

In 2025, the global economic downturn continued to spread, and impacted by external factors such as U.S. tariff policies, China’s natural resource element supply market exhibited characteristics of structural adjustment. Based on monitoring of the natural resource supply index and industry empirical data, this paper systematically analyzes the supply patterns of three core elements: land, mining rights, and surveying/mapping geospatial information. Throughout the year, the natural resource supply index falls to 90.59 （below the baseline）. The land market demonstrates “overall contraction with structural optimization”, as state-owned construction land supply decreases by 21.3% compared to the previous year, while the proportion of industrial land increases by 4.1 percentage points. Market activity in mining rights significantly is improved, with exploration rights offerings growing by 142.5% year-on-year. Premium rates for strategic mineral resources remain high, with new energy minerals becoming the market focus. The geospatial information industry’s total output value is expected to exceed 900 billion yuan, with R&D intensity of listed companies reaching 11.2%, significantly higher than the average level of strategic emerging industries. Research results indicate that China’s natural resource element supply maintains good coordination with GDP growth, and the precision of resource allocation continues to improve. However, challenges remain, including weak land market demand, significant transformation pressures on traditional mining sectors, and relatively weak competitiveness in the surveying and mapping industry. Based on these findings, this study proposes development pathways for 2026: unlocking the value of existing land through urban renewal, enhancing the resilience of the entire value chain for strategic minerals, strengthening technological innovation in surveying/mapping geospatial information, and promoting the marketization of geospatial data elements, thereby providing solid resource element guarantees for high-quality economic development.