Analysis of global and domestic oil and gas resource dynamics in 2025 and outlook

Amid intensifying international rivalry and overlapping supply-demand imbalances, ensuring oil and gas resource security has become increasingly critical. China has long faced a supply-demand gap in oil and gas with persistently high external dependence—exceeding 70% for oil and 40% for natural gas in 2025—making accelerating technological breakthroughs and capacity expansion in domestic exploration and production pivotal for energy security. Based on a three-dimensional framework of “global geopolitics-economic cycles-energy transition”, this paper systematically analyzes the 2025 global and domestic oil and gas market dynamics, leveraging public reports from authoritative institutions （IMF, IEA, EIA, OPEC） and continuous tracking of international events and energy trends. It conducts longitudinal comparisons of core indicators with 2020 （onset of the “Dual Carbon” goals） and 2021 （start of the 14th Five-Year Plan）, alongside cross-sectional comparisons with major consumers （U.S., India） using 2025 data. The results show that evolving geopolitics and trade policy uncertainties have reinforced global economic slowdown expectations. Combined with OPEC+ production hikes and high non-OPEC output, the international oil market has loosened, with oil prices fluctuating broadly downward. The global natural gas market features regional divergence, easing supply-demand, and reduced volatility, driven by geopolitics, market fundamentals, and weather. China’s economy has remained stable with growth, while energy consumption has shown steady moderate growth. Significant exploration breakthroughs in major petroliferous basins and offshore areas have driven oil and gas production to a historic high, sustaining “stable oil, growing gas” momentum with a notable increase in unconventional oil and gas share and a shift in natural gas consumption toward livelihood sectors. However, challenges persist, including concentrated crude oil import sources and low self-sufficiency. Looking to 2026, the global oil market will remain loose, with oil prices projected to fluctuate downward. Natural gas prices will diverge—U.S. prices may rebound, while global prices are constrained by European inventories and moderate Asian demand, precluding sharp rises. Domestic oil and gas production will continue to grow, with stable crude output and 10 billion cubic meters of additional natural gas annually, strongly supporting national energy security and the construction of a new energy system.