Global mining outlook in 2026

The world economy experienced manifold shocks from imperialism, trade protectionism in 2025, and resource nationalism with a divergent trend of growth rates: US economy was slowing down, while other developed economies were experiencing mixed growth, with emerging and developing economies generally growing slower than in 2024. Due to tariff policies, the economic growth rates of major mineral resource countries such as Canada and Brazil have declined significantly. Global mineral exploration budget declined for the third consecutive year, but structural features are prominent. Investment in mineral exploration, including gold, bucked the trend and increased. Rush gold exploration in West Africa continues, with Côte d'Ivoire becoming the country with the most exploration investment in Africa. Latin America remains an important destination for mineral exploration, with copper and gold being the main minerals being explored. Rare earth projects, especially ion-adsorption deposits in countries like Brazil have become major targets for international investors. Mineral commodity prices show significant divergence, prices of major mineral commodities such as crude oil, coal, natural gas and iron ore are sluggish, but that of metals such as gold continue to reach new heights, and that of battery minerals such as lithium and cobalt have rebounded significantly. World crude steel production declined year-on-year, but India’s crude steel production maintains double-digit growth. Major copper-producing countries such as Chile and the Democratic Republic of Congo have seen a decline in production due to mine accidents, while the energy transition, artificial intelligence, and rapid deployment of data centers have driven up copper demand, leading to a tightening of copper supply. Global top mining companies have reached a record market capitalization, and mergers and acquisitions have increased. However, mining companies face many challenges, including insufficient investment confidence and challenges to sustainable operation. Countries around the world are placing greater emphasis on the secure supply and tight control of strategic mineral resources, sparing no effort to ensure the domestic development and overseas supply of minerals such as rare earths etc. Looking ahead to 2026, geoeconomic confrontation will intensify further, the global macroeconomic outlook is less optimistic, and the global mining industry will also face various challenges. Competition will become more intense among countries for key minerals needed for national defense, energy transition and emerging industries.