Spatio-temporal evolution and driving factors of farmland system health in coal-grain composite zone of the Huang-Huai-Hai Plane: a case study of Xuzhou City

This study aims to explore the spatio-temporal evolution characteristics and primary driving factors of farmland system health in coal-grain composite zones. Selecting Xuzhou City, a typical representative of such areas in the Huang-Huai-Hai Plain, as the research object, and integrating local industrial characteristics, the study is based on multi-source remote sensing, soil monitoring, and socio-economic development data. A comprehensive evaluation model for the health of Xuzhou’s farmland system is constructed, and its core driving factors are identified, by employing a combination of methods including the multiple linear regression, GEE remote sensing analysis, and GIS spatial analysis. The findings indicate that: ①the health condition of the farmland system in Xuzhou shows a trend of initial decline followed by an increase, with the overall health score rising from 52.455 to 56.672. Temporally, the health condition of farmland system in Xuzhou deteriorated slightly from 2000 to 2010, but improved year by year after 2011, showing overall stability with positive trends. Spatially, the eastern and southeastern parts of Xuzhou City exhibit better health conditions with continuous improvement; the central region experiences deterioration in the early stage but gradually recovers later; the northern and northwestern areas, impacted by mining development, had the lowest health levels, although improvements are observed after 2015. ②Among socio-economic factors, the urban annual average GDP and population density are core factors, both exerting a significant negative impact on the health of the farmland system in Xuzhou, with only the distance from farmland to roads showing a positive correlation. Among natural factors, the core factors are annual average precipitation and soil organic matter content, both positively influencing farmland system health in Xuzhou. Meanwhile, the annual average of land surface temperature and effective soil thickness have a relatively high impact, but both negatively affected farmland system health in Xuzhou. Among soil pollution factors, the highly influential heavy metal content and pH value both have negative impacts on farmland system health. The farmland system health assessment framework constructed in this paper provides a basis for assessing the current status of farmland system, and can also provide experience and reference for similar regions to improve the resilience of farmland and alleviate the long-term pressure of coal mining on food security and ecology.