Evolution of trade pattern and supply risk prediction in China’s cobalt industry chain

Cobalt, as a crucial resource for energy transformation and low-carbon development, faces supply risks that have become a strategic issue for safeguarding national security. Systematically analyzing the evolutionary characteristics of the trade pattern in the cobalt industry chain and predicting future supply risks are of great significance for sustaining the development of related industries in China. Current research has not yet formed a comprehensive analytical framework that covers the horizontal spatial propagation and vertical temporal evolution of mineral resource supply risks. Based on international trade data of cobalt products from 2004 to 2023, this study adopts complex network methods to simulate the horizontal transmission process and impact effects of risks under trade disruption scenarios, constructs a risk evaluation system to analyze and predict the vertical trends of supply risks. It conducts a comprehensive prediction and analysis of the supply security issues in China’s cobalt industry chain. The research results indicate that: ①the upstream trade network of the cobalt industry chain is the most vulnerable, facing paralysis when the top 34% of its nodes fail. The midstream and downstream have stronger risk resistance capabilities, and the critical point at which their networks face paralysis is around 50%. ②From the perspective of horizontal risk transmission, China is at the center of the cobalt industry chain trade network; the disruption of this node will cause greater damage to the upstream and midstream of the trade network than to the downstream. ③From the perspective of longitudinal risk change, the supply risks of China’s cobalt industry chain will show an upward trend in both the upstream and downstream, with a slight downward trend in the midstream. Policy recommendations are as follows: the government should make advance arrangements, establish a national cobalt reserve plan, and enhance China’s self-sufficiency in cobalt resource supply to cope with supply risk shocks. Promote innovation in cobalt product production technology and upgrade the industry chain, extending into high-end manufacturing fields such as new materials and new energy, thereby enhancing the competitiveness of China’s cobalt industry chain. Strengthen the monitoring and evaluation of supply risks in China’s cobalt industry chain, improve the supply risk early warning and emergency response mechanism.