Research on the high-quality development pathway of China’s cobalt industry driven by new quality productive forces

Against the backdrop of the “dual-carbon” targets driving the rapid development of the new energy industry, cobalt, as a strategic mineral resource, serves as a core raw material underpinning emerging sectors such as new energy and high-end equipment manufacturing. The high-quality development of the cobalt industry is therefore directly linked to national energy transition and resource security. Drawing on the latest statistical data from the United States Geological Survey（USGS）, Darton Commodities, the General Administration of Customs of China, China Nonferrous Metals Industry Association, and Beijing Antaike Information Co., Ltd., this paper systematically reviews the global distribution and production pattern of cobalt ore resources and analyzes the characteristics of Chinese cobalt industry in terms of resource endowment, production and consumption, and industrial chain layout. The analysis identifies six major challenges confronting China’s cobalt industry: high external dependence on resources and highly concentrated supply chains, structural overcapacity, a single-application structure on the demand side, limited pricing power in international markets, insufficient technological innovation capability, and inadequate coordination along the industrial chain. In line with the connotation and requirements of new quality productive forces, the study constructs a “four-wheel-drive” mechanism for the high-quality development of the cobalt industry, comprising technological-innovation empowerment, green and low-carbon leadership, collaborative and efficient driving, and digital-intelligent empowerment, so as to achieve precise alignment between key industrial challenges and corresponding solutions. On this basis, targeted development pathways and implementation strategies are proposed at three levels: at the national level, strengthening policy guidance and resource security; at the industry level, promoting industrial chain collaboration and standard-system development; and at the enterprise level, enhancing core competitiveness and global layout capabilities. The aim is to facilitate the strategic transformation of China’s cobalt industry from “scale expansion” to “quality improvement,” and from “import dependence” to “autonomous control plus green circularity,” thereby providing practical guidance for the high-quality development of China’s cobalt industry as well as a scientific decision-making reference for national strategic mineral resource management and related industrial policy design.