Analysis of the evolution characteristics and driving factors of the global energy and mineral resources supply-demand pattern from 2020 to 2025

Under the complex background of global energy transition, a new round of technological revolution, and geopolitical conflicts from 2020 to 2025, the global supply-demand pattern of energy and mineral resources has undergone marked structural differentiation and dynamic restructuring. Based on supply and demand data for major energy and mineral resources over the past years, this study analyzes the evolving characteristics of this pattern and its underlying driving factors. It aims to provide a reference for understanding global market trends, ensuring the stability of industrial and supply chains, and formulating relevant industrial policies. For energy resources, the research indicates that the overall growth rate of supply and demand has slowed, and the Asia Pacific region has become the core of demand growth. Under the background of OPEC+ production adjustments and geopolitical maneuvering, the oil market is shifting towards oversupply. The natural gas market has been profoundly reshaped, with the United States becoming the world’s largest LNG exporter and its market share growing to 28.6%, while Russia is accelerating the eastward shift of its supply focus. Coal experienced a temporary rebound amid energy security concerns, but its long-term downward trend remains unchanged. Meanwhile, the global coal production and consumption center is accelerating the transfer to the Asia Pacific region. For mineral resources, a significant characteristic of “structure imbalance in traditional minerals and divergence in strategic emerging minerals” is observed. The iron ore market continues to be in surplus, the copper market maintains a tight balance due to limited supply increment, and the aluminum market faces a structural deficit driven by rigid supply constraints and expanding green demand. The supply and demand of strategic emerging minerals transfer towards oversupply due to concentrated release of production capacity and technological shocks after a phase of explosive demand growth and price spikes. The surplus pressure of lithium has eased to some extent, the cobalt market has shifted to a substantial shortage under policy intervention, while nickel has turned to a deep surplus, with cumulative surpluses of 290 300 tonnes in 2025. In the precious metals sector, the gold market is supported by both its safe-haven attribute and sustained central bank purchases, maintaining a tight balance. Driven by surging industrial demand from photovoltaics and AI sectors, silver continues to experience a structural shortage, with a supply deficit of 3 660.94 tonnes in 2025. The platinum market has shifted from oversupply to a deep deficit, constrained by supply limitations and the expansion of hydrogen energy applications. Overall, the global supply-demand pattern is undergoing a continuous adjustment period, with regional differentiation, supply-demand mismatches, and supply chain security issues becoming increasingly prominent under the new pattern.