Research on global helium supply security from the perspective of geopolitical conflicts

Helium is an indispensable strategic scarce resource underpinning cutting-edge technologies such as semiconductor manufacturing and medical magnetic resonance imaging （MRI）. Amid intensifying geopolitical competition over critical mineral supply chains, this study adopts a supply chain network perspective to systematically assess the security landscape of global helium supply under geopolitical conflicts, with a particular focus on quantifying the structural vulnerabilities facing East Asia—the core consuming region. Based on comprehensive global helium data for 2024, this study employs the Herfindahl-Hirschman Index （HHI） to measure market concentration. Furthermore, by integrating the finite holding period of special liquid helium ISO tank containers （35-48 days） with the transit times of deep-sea shipping, it develops an analytical framework of “spatiotemporal rigidity”. Extreme scenario simulations, together with the price shock event observed in spring 2026, are used to model the systemic risk transmission mechanism triggered by geopolitical crises. The results reveal a highly centralized oligopolistic structure in the global helium market. In 2024, the Herfindahl-Hirschman Index（HHI） for helium production and trade globally reached 3 350 and 3 260 respectively, significantly exceeding the threshold for highly concentrated markets. As the world’s largest net importing region, East Asia exhibits pronounced supply chain vulnerability: nearly 50% of the region’s supply depends on Qatar, more than 80% of maritime shipments must traverse the two strategic chokepoints of the Strait of Hormuz and the Strait of Malacca, and the lengthy voyage （15-35 days） consumes 50%-72% of the effective holding period of liquid helium. Extreme geopolitical scenario analysis indicates that a Qatar supply cutoff would push the global supply network into a unilateral dependence structure, with the HHI_w value would soar to 4 805. The real-world impact case of spring 2026 further confirmed the destructive power of panic transmission. The price of helium arriving in China once surged sharply from 79.00 CNY/m³ to 517.29 CNY/m³ in a short period, by as much as 554.8%. This paper is the first to integrate HHI measurement with maritime time rigidity, fully delineating the transmission chain of “supply disruption, anticipatory panic, price runaway”. Given the triple coupled risks of supply concentration, constrained channels, and geopolitical turbulence, China should urgently accelerate the establishment of a full life-cycle helium recovery system, optimize its consumption structure, and eliminate unnecessary resource losses in non-critical applications.