Analysis of oil and gas resource situation at home and abroad in the first half of 2026 and prospects

As global political and economic instability intensifies, and geopolitical conflicts severely impact the energy market, China’s long-standing heavy reliance on imported oil and gas makes the timely monitoring and analysis of global and domestic resource situations imperative for national energy security. Based on data from the IMF, IEA, EIA, and OPEC, this paper tracks and compares global oil and gas demand, supply, prices, and investment, while incorporating geopolitical event-based attribution analysis to arrive at an integrated judgment on the domestic and international oil and gas situations. As geopolitical conflicts erupt world market and growth forecasts soften, the oil market is entering a demand inflection point, while supply chains pivot from efficiency to security. Actively seeking diversified supply has become a consensus. Upstream investment remains sluggish, with the focus of investment shifting towards infrastructure, and the investment landscape is experiencing regional differentiation. China’s economy has remained stable with positive momentum, with progress in oil and gas exploration, steady growth in oil and gas production, and continuous improvement in the legal and policy guarantee system. In the face of challenges such as recurring geopolitical conflicts, fluctuations in international oil prices, inventory replenishment pressures, and investment risks, it is imperative to intensify domestic exploration and development efforts. For the second half of 2026, international crude prices are projected to trend downwards amid sluggish oscillations, weighed by recurring geopolitical tensions, weakening demand and recovering production capacity. Natural gas prices will continue to diverge regionally due to contrasting supply-demand conditions, featuring relaxed in North America and tight in Europe and Asia. In the opening year of the 15th Five-Year Plan period, exploration and development efforts will be further intensified, the strategic action for mineral prospecting breakthrough will be steadily advanced, and supporting laws and policies for the Mineral Resources Law will be further refined. Multiple measures will be implemented to boost reserves and production, enhance self-sufficiency, and ensure national energy security.