Forecasting of iron ore price based on weighted moving average method
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Abstract
The expected price of iron ore is extremely important to the mining companies to make decisions.Due to many factors influencing the price of iron ore and the obvious price fluctuation in recent years,it is more difficult to predict the price of iron ore accurately.Based on the weighted moving average method,this paper analyzes the possible trend of iron ore price,adjusts the weight value,and takes the historical price of iron ore in the last three years to get the improved forecasting price of iron ore,which is 525.36 yuan/t in 2017,535.13 yuan/t in 2018,548.13 yuan/t in 2019,551.67 yuan/t in 2020,and the average annual growth rate is about 3.73%.Combined with the prediction of the relevant institutions,the average annual growth rate of 3.73% has a higher confidence by analyzing the probability distribution of iron ore price in the next few years,so it can provide a reference for the relevant business to make decisions.
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