ANALYSIS ON OIL PRODUCTION SITUATION AND DEVELOPMENT PERSPECTIVE IN CHINA

This paper systemically analyzed the changing trends of oil production situation in the recent years in China,they can be summarized as follows:(1) oil production has presented a widespread decrease in the eastern region,and its ratio against the total output has fallen;(2) oil production had a stable growth in the middle region,but its output growth range is limited;(3) oil production had a continuing increase in the western region,and the potential of output growth is quite great in the future;(4) oil production had a rapid growth in the offshore region,and output growth range is large.In the light of changing features of oil output over the years in China and of growing trend of proven reserves in the future,two sorts of prediction methods such as the life model simulation method and "reserve-production"dually controlling method have been selected,moreover in combination with the prediction result of other scholars and agencies,the growth trend of oil production in the short-medium-term in China is analyzed.During the period from 2001 to 2015,depending on science and technology progress,more investment in exploration is expected and oil production will continue to grow steadily,and oil output will amount to the range from 170 million tons to 175 million tons.