Scenario analysis and prediction of regional energy security in eastern coastal China

Medium-and long-term energy supply and energy security pressure scenarios in eastern coastal China were analyzed by comprehensively using of scenario analysis based on the IPAT equation of deformation mode in this article.Dependence on foreign energy is a direct measure of the pressure on energy security indicators.Three scenarios were designed according to the demographic and socio-economic trends over the next 40years in eastern coastal areas,and combined with the development of the status.Energy supply and demand,as well as the dependence on foreign energy of eastern coastal areas in different contexts were obtained by calculation.The results show that:Growth rate of energy demand was fastest in the business as usual scenario mode;The largest increase was total energy production in the green energy scenario mode;Dependence on foreign energy was smallest in the green energy scenario mode.Studies have shown that the population control,moderate economic growth,positive development and utilization of new energy and renewable energy,diversification of energy varieties,and improving the economic efficiency of energy was a strong guarantee of sustainable energy development in eastern coastal areas.