Analysis of the influence factors of gold price in China under the new normal economy:based on VAR model

In the new normal economy, the factors influencing gold price have attracted wide atention in recent years.Based on the monthly data of Shanghai gold exchange from 2002～2017, this paper analyzes the factors affecting the gold price in China by using the methods of stepwise regression, cointegration test, VAR model and impulse response function.The results indicate that there is a long-term cointegration relationship between China’s gold price and the corporate goods price index, US dollar exchange rate, GDP, the interbank rate of 7 days; gold price is the granger reason for the corporate goods price index, while the corporate goods price index isn’t the granger reason for gold price.There is no granger reason for US dollar exchange rate, GDP, the interbank rate of 7 days and gold price; gold price fluctuation is most affected by US dollar exchange rate, beside gold price.