The forecast and application of china coal cost model in the period of the eleventh five-year plan

It is important for us to forecast coal cost in the future years,which should not only grasp the macroscopical environment but also should deeply investigate the problem of cost management in coal enterprise. After about these years' efforts, the coal industry reformation has acquired material developments, and the whole coal market is affected by political increasing factors which includes production, cost resource cost (including resource tax, resource compensation fee and mineral title),safety cost, environmental cost etc. This paper forecast the trend of per coal cost by means of Time Series Exponential Smoothing on the basis of comprehension the Outline of the Eleventh Five-Year Plan and combining with the development of China's coal industry.