Entropy combination forecast of China's nickel supply and demand in year 2020,2025,2030
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Abstract
Nickel resources are important resources and fundamental element of China's economic development.Discussion on the supply and demand of nickel resources is particularly essential for its availability and security.As an emerging economy,China has achieved rapid economic development growth and China's nickel consumption has increased dramatically during industrialization and urbanization in recent years.This paper forecasts China's nickel supply and demand in year 2020,2025 and 2030 by analyzing the domestic supply and demand of nickel resources,applying entropy combination methods of artificial neural networks,logistic model,etc.and adopting the relevant factors such as economic growth and stainless steel production.The prediction reveals that nickel resources will reach the state of supply and demand balance in year 2020 and 2025 while experiencing the shortfall in year 2030.Under the premise of scarce domestic resources and booming demand,the supply will show reducing trend and weak availability,which will threaten national security of nickel resources.On this basis,policy recommendations on geological exploration investment,industry leverage as well as financial and trade tools are proposed for moderate development of nickel resource industry
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