The prediction of coal mine gas accident number based on Time Series-Markov model

Based on the data of coal mine gas accidents in China from 2001 to 2016，this paper has predicted the number of accidents each year range from 2001 to 2010，2011，…，2015 with the Time Series model (TS) and the Time Series-Markov model (TSM)，and the relative error is calculated.The average relative error of the number of accidents of the six groups with the calculation of TS is between 18.72% and 23.4%，while the corresponding value of TSM is between 5.79% and 7.09%，and the fluctuant trend of TSM’s predicted value is more in line with the real situation.With the help of the above two prediction models，Linear fitting the relative error of the number of gas accidents in each year from 2011 to 2016，It is found that the fitting curve of TSM is more accurate.Therefore，the use of TSM to predict the number of coal mine gas accidents is more reliable than TS’s，it also reflects that TSM has considered more about the affect of the forecast value by recent factors than TS.Finally，the number of coal mine gas accidents in China from 2017 to 2020 is predicted by the TSM, and the results of those were 6, 7, 6, 4.