Evaluation and prediction of land ecological security in coal mine city: a case study of Shuozhou city, Shanxi province

Coal mine cities are faced a series of ecological environment problem.This paper takes Multifactor comprehensive index method based on Pressure-State-Response (PSR) framework to evaluate the ecological security and grey correlation degree to reflect the correlation between coal mining and other factors and Grey Model (1, 1) to predict the ecological security from 2016 to 2020 and Barrier Model to analysis the index significant factors of ecological security.The results show:the ecological security index of Shuozhou city in the past 2005～2015 years showed a downward trend, and the ecological security level decreased from Safety decline to Critical Safety level.The prediction that ecological security index from 2016 to 2020 will decline rapidly after a brief increase in 2017, and the ecological security level will be reduced from the critical safety to unsafety.Coal mining has significant influence on other ecological safety evaluation indexes.The main obstacle factors of ecological security in the early year such as solid waste comprehensive utilization level and economic level which are changed to the amount of coal mining, industrial solid waste and waste water, environmental protection investment and land reclamation rate.Through analyzing of the ecological environment in Shuozhou city can provide a useful reference for the establishment of relevant measures for the development of coal resources, environmental protection and land reclamation measures, and for the construction of ecological safety guarantee system.