A forecast of China's gold demand trends:an application of systematic dynamics methodology

China has been the world's largest gold producer and consumer since 2013.China's gold supply and consumption ability will seize global attention.The future of gold consumption potentials and supply in China are worthy of being discussed.This paper firstly induces systematic dynamics methodology,and constructs China's overall framework of gold demand;it secondly analyzes the causality between gold's demand,and further predicts gold's demand trends in China in the future.Dividing China's economic growth trends as three scenarios(the high,the base,and the low),it respectively forecasts the corresponding demand.The forecast reveals that China's gold demand will continue to rise till the year 2030,the gold corrsumption will not reach the peak till 2030,but the growth speed of gold demand will slow down.The gold supply and demand gap will be further expanded in the future.