THE ERROR CORRECTION MODELS OF CHINA ENERGY PRODUCTION

Based on the theory of co-integration,we make a study of the relationships between china energies production and GDP from 1978 to 2004,establish their error correction models,then make a prediction of short energy production with these models.The result indicates: The prediction production of ECM models is very close to actual production of 2005,the error rate of coal is 0.45%,oil 0.74%,gas 6.2%;According to actual production of 2005,we make a prediction of energies production in 2006,the production of coal is 2.1billion ton,oil 1850 million ton,gas 56.68 billion cubic meter.