Monte Carlo simulations of the reliability of mine capacity and its application

There is great uncertainty in the process of design underground mine’s capacity.In order to reduce its decision risk，the Monte Carlo simulations of the reliability of mine capacity is established.Taking the capacity simulations of initial mining level of a molybdenum mine in Heilongjiang as an example，the Monte Carlo simulations of the reliability of mine capacity is separately carried out with the design method of the numbers of simultaneously mining block，and the design method of mining decreasing speed per year and the design method of new level preparation time.Comprehensive analysis shows that the reliability of mine capacity of 300×104 t/a，500×104 t/a and 750×104 t/a are respectively 100%，99.1%～88.4% and 84.0%～9.85%，and the simulation results can provide a reference for mine capacity design.