Study on the risk assessment of some provinces’ shale gas industryin China based on ANP-GRA-TOPSIS method
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Abstract
In recent years,the provincial governments have attached great importance to shale gas exploration and exploitation,to promote the province's shale gas development.Under the influence of geological conditions,development technology and other risk factors,the provinces have achieved different performances.By using process analysis and expert consultation method,this paper identifies the risk of shale gas industry.From the resource risk,technology risk,economic risk,policy and system risk,and environmental risk,the paper also builds shale gas industry risk evaluation index system.Then the ANP-GRA-TOPSIS model is established to evaluate the shale gas industry risk of 12 provinces.The result shows that the risk of Sichuan and Chongqing's shale gas industry is relatively low;the risk of Xinjiang,Inner Mongolia,Yunnan,Shaanxi,Guizhou,Hunan,Shanxi,Anhui,Hubei,and Jiangsu's shale gas industry is relatively high.To promote the further development of China's shale gas industry,this paper suggests that China should speed up the construction of national shale gas exploration and development experimental zone in the Sichuan-Chongqing region,establish a national shale gas exploration fund,and build a comprehensive financial support system.
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