THE PREDICTION OF 2007-2010 COAL DEMAND IN LIAONING PROVINCE USING GM(1,3) METHOD

Selecting major factors(GDP Increasing Rate;Coal Consumption Ratio in Energy), establishing coal demand model in LIAONING province using GM(1,3) method.There were two GM(1,1) sub-models in main model-GM(1,3),one was prediction model of GDP increasing rate;another was prediction model of coal consumption ratio in energy.All precisions of main model and the sub-models were top-level.All prediction results of GDP increasing rate,coal consumption ratio in energy and coal demand in 2007～2010 were proper with economy and society in LIAONING province.Establishing model using GM method could avoid data deficiency and artificial disturbing effect.However,it needs more study using GM to predict long term demand.