Risk decision-making model for oil & gas exploration based on dynamic MAUT

The risk decision making of oil & gas exploration projects is a complex decision-process. The traditional methods hardly consider the risk propensity of different decision-makers, which lead the results do not fit the real situation. Based on the framework of MAUT that put forward by Suslick, this paper proposed a dynamic MAUT decision model for oil & gas exploration projects. Firstly, from the angle of 'risk-profit', the 'geology risk', 'market risk' and 'economic benefits' were selected as the main attributes of this model. Then through the utility function, this model combined the subjective factors, such as decision-makers' attitudes to risk and experience with the profit and loss of exploration projects. And finally, integrated the advantages of experts weighting and random weighting, this model evaluated the weights of attibuted dynamically. So this method not only can take into account the risk preferences of decision-makers, but also can and reflect the stability of the decision-making results, which made decision-makers able to analyze with comprehensiveness and dynamic. So the decision has been made more scientifically and reasonable. The application indicated that the method was scientific and feasible; it was also useful for reference to the congener research.