Study on optimum resources extraction under taxes rate increasing expectation

It is urgent for business and government to solve the problem that how to extract exhaustible resources effectively under uncertainty.In fact, the government can create uncertain by changing the future of policy established. Firstly the characteristic of taxes policy expectation is described. Then probability of levy resource taxes is computed by using total probability formula. Based on these analyses, dynamic optimize model of resources extraction under policy expectation is built. And optimum extraction path is received. The results show: ① The process of taxes levy expectation is not only followed geometric process, but also followed Poisson process. Under some condition, the problem of taxes levy expectation can degenerate to levy resources taxes or no resources taxes. ② If the relation of resources extraction rate and resources taxes is analyzed, the primal stock must be considered.