STUDY ON FORECASTED TREND OF CHINA'S COAL OUTPUT

Based on the output changes of different coal mines,one variable linear regression model,autoregressive model and intervention analysis model are applied to forecast the output of state-owned important mines,state-owned local-run mines and town-village-run coal mines.These models improve the precision of the forecast.Comparing the forecasted results of coal output with coal demand,the conclusion is drawn that the coal supply of coal-market of China will be insufficient in the first several decades of the 21th century,which should be paid much attention to by decision-makers.